Reflections following a trip to the mountains of western Canada
Beyond the deaths and destruction, some takeaways for the future
Descriptions of the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene have dominated news reports. They place an understandable emphasis on the more than 200 deaths in six states, hundreds more missing, and the absence of food, gasoline, and cell service. Images of collapsed bridges, demolished buildings, and the saddened faces of the homeless have made front pages everywhere. The wreckage and ruin is so extensive that a Washington Post headline read “In North Carolina there was before Helene. This is the after.” Estimates of the economic impacts now exceed $200 billion — only a small fraction of which is covered by insurance.
Community and public support for disaster recovery are understandably the short-term priority. However, as climate disasters become increasingly frequent and consequential, learning from experience to develop more effective national and international responses to climate change is critical. There have been many such lessons from Hurricane Helene, some widely discussed, others less so:
· Warmer temperatures mean more intense rainfall. The linkage between climate change and more intense rainfall is well known but has rarely been demonstrated so dramatically. As the air warms, moisture is converted from liquid to gas or vapor allowing greater water retention, about 7% more for every 1C. This despite the absorption of most atmospheric heat by the oceans, which occurs without a large increase in temperature. Thus, rainfall records — and flooding events — are likely to be increasingly frequent. Climate change is making storms with much greater rainfall and windspeed twice as likely to occur.
· Effective communication of flood risk is challenging. The public has become accustomed to the categorization of hurricanes based on wind speed but there is no comparable system for ranking potential flooding. Moreover, rapid intensification of hurricanes is reducing the time available for warnings. Thanks to record warmth in the Gulf, Helene and later Milton went from an 80-mph Category 1 hurricane one day to a 140 mph Category 4 cyclone the next, a nightmare scientists had predicted and now realized.
· Government policy can worsen climate impacts. In recent years the North Carolina legislature has voted to override a veto by the Governor and thereby weaken building code provisions. Requirements to build above the projected height of a major flood were eliminated at the urging of builders to reduce costs and speed construction. The changes cost the state millions of dollars for federal grants that fund resilient construction projects. Of course the opposite is also true — good government policies like stronger building codes can lessen impacts.
· Billions of dollars more are needed for disaster relief. The Federal Energy Management Agency (FEMA) responsible for disaster relief is running out of funds forcing it to focus on immediate needs. The $20 billion budget, based on past experience, is no longer nearly sufficient. As weather disasters become more intense and more property owners lose insurance, the need will increase dramatically.
· Disaster response efforts have become a topic for politicians. Disaster relief efforts have historically been largely non-partisan. However, the heated nature of political discourse has now included partisan criticism of FEMA programs. Former president Trump has made such accusations contrary to all evidence, while ironically former aides have accused him of exactly such behavior.
· There are no safe havens. Asheville, N.C. in the western, mountainous part of the state and 500 miles from the coast, was listed by some experts among locations relatively safe from exposure to climate impacts. Yet the record, intense rainfall — more than 30 inches in some areas already wet from a previous rain combined with winds exceeding 100 miles per hour — left much of the town in ruins. ”Probable maximum precipitation” estimates used as the basis for building designs are undergoing significant review and revision.
· Flooding is not just a coastal issue. While the power of hurricanes is measured traditionally by wind speed, the damage caused by Hurricane Helene was more a function of its size and rainfall, covering more than 500 miles. Flood maps used to determine where homeowners with mortgages must buy flood insurance are now seriously out of date. Flooding due to the intense rainfall from tropical storms now causes more deaths than storm surges (the rise in water levels above normal high tide) and mortality keeps rising for more than a decade afterward.
· Flooding can disrupt manufacture of critical materials. Areas impacted by flooding have cutoff a primary source of high quality quartz, a material critical for the semiconductor industry and manufacture of chips and solar panels with no immediate alternative suppliers. The country’s largest maker of IV fluids, also in North Carolina, has alerted hospitals there will be a supply interruption. While less concentrated, areas with large production of poultry and hogs were also severely impacted, likely to result in higher prices.
· Destruction of infrastructure may be the most costly and lasting impact of flooding events. For low-income families and the uninsured, rebuilding housing is a daunting prospect. For many, the only immediate option is moving in with friends or relatives, sometimes a mobile home, or relocating. Yet the most costly and difficult to repair damage is often to public infrastructure, such as dams, roads, bridges, and water systems. In areas like western North Carolina where thousands depend on private wells, water problems due to flooding may be even greater.
· There is still a lot scientists don’t know. Accurate and timely weather forecasts are critical for effective warnings of intense rainfall and potential severe flooding. However, the science and models for such forecasts is still limited and evolving. Scientists first erroneously predicted an early hurricane season this summer, and then were surprised by the intensity, location, and slow speed of the hurricanes that did occur. As a leading climate scientist recently said, “We don’t really know what processes are going and that makes it hard to simulate in the computer model. We need actual measurements from right at this moment and we don’t have them. So what goes in the model is best estimates.”
· Resilience measures work — up to a point. Housing built with hurricanes and flooding in mind is still rare. A community of 31 homes in Florida designed and built with severe storms in mind has so far survived three hurricanes with minimal impacts, including Helene. But how much protection is enough will be tested — a hospital in Tampa invested in a nine-flood barrier but even higher storm surges are now predicted.
As I write this, Hurricane Milton has added to the list of extreme weather events this year. While climate experts continue research to better understand the implications of temperatures outside human experience, no doubt more such disasters await us. The question is: will we learn from this experience?
Alan Miller is a former climate change officer in the International Finance Corporation (2003–13) and climate change team leader, Global Environment Facility (1997–2003). Besides other engagements, Alan is an active editor for Climate Conscious submissions on Medium.
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Reflections following a trip to the mountains of western Canada
Donald Trump’s disdain for environmental regulation is one of his signature polemics.
“A fool is someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” Oscar Wilde
Thank you, Alan, for your perceptive, insightful, and much-needed perspectives on climate change. A terrific public service.