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“From this tragedy, an immense irony is unfolding. Those who've fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom." Simon Stiell, UNFCCC

President Trump’s love of fossil fuels (“drill baby drill”) and extreme dislike of wind power (“a joke. . .and so pathetic”) are among his many well-known, ill-informed, loudly expressed and ridiculous opinions. Thanks to the loyalty he commands from Administration officials and Republican legislators, billions of dollars in support of renewable energy projects were canceled, efficiency regulations on cars and subsidies for EVs have been ended, and leases for wind projects have been terminated. In March this year he invoked emergency powers to force a series of retiring coal plants to continue operating, a strategy with potential costs in the billions of dollars, and offered several companies billions more to abandon plans to build wind plants.

Yet thanks to Trump’s war on Iran, a global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is accelerating -- exactly the opposite of his grand vision for personal enrichment and global domination. Before the war, renewables were already winning based on price. As noted in The Economist, “Even before America and Israel started bombing Iran at the end of Feb, the tumbling costs of clean energy were undercutting fossil fuels in many parts of the world.” This cost driver has been true for some time; solar was the single biggest contributor to new energy supply worldwide in 2025, and even in the U.S. renewables accounted for 61% of new power-generating capacity last year.

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But the war has dramatically accelerated this trend. China’s exports of solar cells and panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and lithium-ion batteries -- the “new three” clean-energy technology -- surged by 70% year-on-year in March 2026, reaching $21.6 billion. Exports of the three technologies were up 37% from February, the month before the Iran war. Increasing penetration of ⁠EVs, especially ⁠two- and three-wheelers, and rapid deployment of solar systems across Southeast Asia and South Asia is increasingly expected. In contrast with the U.S. market, the war in Iran and the turmoil it set off in global oil markets is fueling a surge in electric car sales globally -- including the U.S. where sales of new EVs rose 20 percent in March, used by 54 percent. And the uncertain end to the war and extended period required to restore oil production and distribution will make companies wary of returning to the Strait.

A dramatic transformation of the global energy system is increasingly likely and irreversible. National security and market stability concerns are new and increasingly powerful sources of political pressure to promote energy independence. In India, the Iran War has threatened the supply of the liquefied petroleum gas that powers India’s homes, restaurants and industries and caused panic buying of natural gas widely used in rural areas for cooking. Daniel Yergin, for decades a leading expert on global energy matters, notes the stark “divergence” between markets and “the reality of people in Asia actually not having enough oil, shortages, rationing, businesses closing down, restaurants not operating because they don’t have energy.” The UAE announcement that it’s withdrawing from OPEC further adds to the likelihood of volatility in oil markets.

Once installed, solar, wind, and geothermal energy are immune from price hikes and embargoes. As financier Tenzin Seldon explains:

Oil shocks are macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, plain and simple. Grid software, battery storage, distributed energy, industrial electrification: these are infrastructure investments that also happen to decarbonize. The winners will be companies that help economies burn less oil, absorb commodity shocks, and keep running when the geopolitics get ugly. The Hormuz closure confirmed this shift loudly, expensively, and irreversibly.

Consequently, many countries are moving rapidly to adopt policies promoting renewable energy adoption. Having been held hostage once, they are acting forcefully to reduce the chances it will happen again.

· The Philippines energy secretary cited the unfolding crisis in new clean power announcements, saying in March that amid the conflict “accelerating the development of renewable energy and storage is both a strategic necessity and a national imperative”.

· Vietnam axed plans for a 4.8-gigawatt liquefied natural gas plant and now aims to build a wind, battery storage, and solar facility instead.

· South Korea announced a fast-tracked plan to deploy 100 gigawatts of renewables by 2030. The country’s energy minister stated that the Iran war is “serving as a significant turning point” for South Korea to shift toward renewable energy and away from oil.

· Even officials in Egypt, a country with oil production, have recognized that integrating 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of new renewables before next summer was a “core pillar” of the government’s planning.

The new reality in energy markets is also driving investment reinforcing this trend through further improvements in renewable energy technologies and substitutes for critical minerals. New battery technologies are emerging using materials that are widely available and both longer lasting and safer than current products. Solar cells from new materials also promise similar progress. Today, just one mine produces lithium, a mineral critical for batteries, in the U.S. By 2030, at least six new projects are expected on American soil, with 13 more close behind and total claims for 100.

Climate change concerns, for many years the main international focus of efforts to reduce use of fossil fuels, may also reinforce these trends. Fifty-seven countries, representing a third of the global economy, met April 28-29 in Santa Marta, Columbia to discuss plans for eliminating use of fossil fuels forming what has been characterized “a coalition of the willing” following very little progress at the climate negotiations in Brazil last November. The discussions helped clarify that transitions are needed “out of fossil fuels, into renewable energy for all, and into a world that cares for nature,” former president of Ireland Mary Robinson said in a statement at the end of the conference. France, where fossil fuels still power about 60 percent of the world’s seventh-largest economy, unveiled a pilot roadmap to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and gas by 2050, and to electrify sectors such as heating and transport. Colombia’s draft roadmap to largely ditch fossil fuels by 2050 emphasizes that transitioning to renewables could deliver $280 billion for the country in economic benefits.

The big winner from the growing support for the green energy transition is clearly China, another outcome in direct conflict with President Trump’s foreign policies. China is dependent on oil imports from the Gulf and in the short term impacted by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the country is already becoming a major beneficiary of its commitment to global leadership in production of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and EVs and dominance in processing critical minerals. As national security experts Andrew Miller and Michael Clark recently wrote in Foreign Affairs, “Chinese manufacturers of batteries and EVs have seen their market valuations surge since the beginning of the war. . .the war will likely increase global adoption of the country’s technology as a cushion against future energy shocks.”

President Trump will never recognize much less take credit for the contribution he has made to the clean energy transition. Climate activist Bill McKibben put it well: “Donald Trump, purchased underling of the fossil fuel industry, has managed through his own colossal incompetence and ego to nip the hand that feeds his bank account.”

Alan Miller is a former climate change officer in the International Finance Corporation (2003–13) and climate change team leader, Global Environment Facility (1997–2003). Besides other engagements, Alan is an active editor for Climate Conscious submissions on Medium.