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President Trump Shifts from Climate Denial to Obstructing Efforts to Prepare for Climate Risks

President Trump has long been a champion of climate denial, most famously reflected in his 2015 claim climate change is a “hoax.” Such assertions align with his endless pursuit of greater fossil fuel production and the financial support it provides him. Consistent with the 16th century maxim “So long as I know it not, it hurteth me not,” Trump has fired of hundreds of climate scientists, eliminated entire research departments, ended critical measurements like the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and severely diminished and eliminated weather forecasting staff and capabilities. EPA is now proposing to eliminate the legal basis for regulating greenhouse gas emissions, the latest in what the NY Times has described as “an extraordinary pivot away from science-based protections.” Like the President in the film “Don’t Look Up,” Trump has decided his response to climate change is to not look — up, down, or ahead.[1] Unfortunately, as the novelist and author Margaret Atwood has written, “sometimes what you don’t know can hurt you very much,” sadly and profoundly true about climate change.

Climate science has improved significantly since 1988, the year scientist James Hansen famously told the Senate global warming had begun and an international body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was established to enhance understanding of climate change. Previously, climate experts predicted weather trends and extremes primarily using historical data. Such forecasts are essential for planning many long-lived investments like building roads and homes close to river shorelines at risk of flooding; coastal construction subject to rising sea levels; and utility preparations to meet peak demands. What in the past might have been termed black swan events due to their rarity and significance can now be attributed to climate change with increasing confidence. One good indicator is the number of disasters with major economic impacts — a billion dollars plus. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from about three events annually during the 1980s to 19 events yearly the last 10 years and 28 and 27 in 2023 and 2024. The Trump “no look” response: shutdown the data base!

While scientific understanding of extreme weather events has significantly improved, much more research is urgently needed. There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding what is to come and the potential dangers that await. The challenge now is to plan for the future when there is no historical precedent — when even locations in Alaska have heat advisory warnings. As climatologist Kathie Dello recently said, “How do you plan for the worst thing you’ve never seen?” Climate scientist Ralph Keeling notes, there is no justification for a head-in-the sand approach. “Government and the private sector need information to manage risks from floods, fires, heatwaves, droughts, sea-level rise and more. Tough choices will need to be made.”

The many uncertainties with potentially enormous consequences include:

• Tipping points, rapid and potentially dramatic and irreversible changes triggered by crossing some temperature and climate conditions, e.g., warming of the oceans to much higher levels beyond the tolerance of much sea life;[2] melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets sufficient to cause massive migrations; and transformation of most of the Amazon rainforest to a degraded savannah
• Nonlinear relationships such that every increase in temperature results in an increasing response. For example, heatwaves are expected to increase in frequency and duration in response to rising temperatures. For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold approximately 4% more moisture. Each increment of warming will have a greater impact than the one that preceded it.
• Higher temperatures have significant adverse health impacts but in ways difficult to predict. Wildfire smoke is a serious health issue while higher temperatures could spread malaria carrying mosquitos in tropical and temperate countries that have eliminated or largely controlled transmission.
• Impacts on food availability and prices are already significant and may accelerate. Coffee is among the products most sensitive to temperature and rainfall. The combination of extreme temperatures and droughts in many agricultural regions has resulted in what has been termed “food-flation”, increases in the cost of many food products “so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020.”
• Seasonal hurricane forecasts, critical for preparing coastal areas, remain highly uncertain while the potential for severe wind and rainfall inland — while unanticipated — has proven to be severe as well as proven in the devastating damage to Asheville, NC, a location that previously had been considered a climate “safe haven”.
• Heat domes, areas of persistent high temperatures extending into the evening created by blankets of high air pressure, are becoming more extreme and longer-lasting due to climate change. These events are impacting regions where air conditioning previously was not necessary — one in the Pacific Northwest in 2021 killed 1400 people.

Human behavior is also the source of many sources of uncertainty with significant implications for predicting future warming and reducing the risks. Psychologists struggle to understand risk enhancing behaviors like buying properties recently devastated by flooding and wildfires. Other examples of behavioral issues:

· Eating less meat and more plant-based protein sources could reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also bringing health benefits. Meat consumption has been growing modestly, although Trump tariffs are a source of uncertainty about future demand. Another behavior change with climate benefits is to reduce food waste, a surprisingly large source of GHG emissions.

· Many companies acknowledge their exposure to climate risks but only a minority have undertaken the necessary assessments, much less developed strategies and investment plans to prepare and in some cases even benefit.

· Few Americans purchase flood insurance despite the growing risk. California, Florida, and other states have now become insurers of last resort as insurance companies exit in response to increasing losses. Creating incentives for homeowners to adopt risk-reducing measures is urgent.

President Trump’s “No Look” policy may not destroy the earth — the ending in “Don’t Look Up” — but it almost certainly will be responsible for enormous lasting and irreversible damage.

[1] Or as a headline in The Economist put it, “Hear no science, see no science, speak no science.”

[2] The warming of the oceans has occurred much faster and extensively than scientists have been able to explain — “weirdly hot”. The ability of specific plant and animal species to adapt to a changing climate is highly uncertain but can be devastating, e.g., coral reefs may largely disappear due to the impacts of higher sea temperatures and ocean acidification and traditional fishing areas may relocate leaving populations without traditional sources of income and food.

Alan Miller is a former climate change officer in the International Finance Corporation (2003–13) and climate change team leader, Global Environment Facility (1997–2003). Besides other engagements, Alan is an active editor for Climate Conscious submissions on Medium.